
Australian Crop Forecasters estimate 2017-18 wheat production at 25.6 million tonnes, down about 24% from 33.6 million tonnes in 2016-17 and near the 10-year average of 22 million. Dry summer conditions in the southeast are weighing on confidence, while Western and South Australia benefited from above-average rain.
A sharp expected drop in Australian wheat supply could tighten export availability and support wheat prices, though strong global stocks limit the upside.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.