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Australian wheat basis, the gap between domestic prices and Chicago wheat futures, has moved to a normal premium as expected production falls. The ABARES forecast is 26.2 million tonnes, and dry conditions are emerging across the country.
A narrowing discount to Chicago and a firmer basis signal tighter Australian wheat supply, which supports export and feed wheat prices and may lift competing feed grain values.
farmweekly.com.auAndrew Whitelaw, Episode 3Aug 30, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
