Ukrainian soybean prices at Odesa are softening modestly as alternative Black Sea export routes inch toward greater capacity, now handling around 40% of normal agricultural volumes, while seasonal harvest pressure adds fresh supply into a still-constrained logistics system.
The European Feed Manufacturers' Federation (FEFAC) has published its fourth impact assessment warning that converging pressures from drought, Black Sea trade disruption, and EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) sourcing constraints could create a soybean meal supply gap of at least 5 million tonnes in the 2026/2027 marketing year, with total estimated costs to the EU feed and livestock sector reaching around €1.40 billion.
The European Feed Manufacturers Federation (FEFAC) has projected a soybean meal supply gap of at least 5 million tonnes in the EU for the 2026-27 marketing year, driven by drought, Black Sea trade disruptions, and sourcing constraints tied to the EU Deforestation Regulation. The federation estimates the combined cost impact on the EU feed and livestock sector could reach approximately EUR 1.4 billion and has called on EU institutions to act urgently to protect feed security.
A rapidly intensifying El Niño is tightening water levels at the Panama Canal and prompting precautionary draft restrictions, according to an analysis by agribusiness consultant Alê Delara published by CZ App on 17 September 2026. The weather event could raise US Gulf-to-Asia shipping costs, eroding US soybean and corn competitiveness and redirecting Asian demand toward Brazil — but the same climate risks that could lift Brazilian export premiums also threaten its domestic harvest and push up farm input costs.
The USDA's September WASDE trimmed 2026/27 US corn ending stocks and slashed production forecasts, while soybean ending stocks edged lower on stronger export demand. Wheat balances were broadly stable. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's shutdown of its East-West pipeline and record-high diesel cracks are adding freight and energy cost pressure that feed manufacturers and ingredient traders will need to monitor closely.