FEFAC warns EU faces 5 million-tonne soybean meal supply gap under EUDR

The European Feed Manufacturers' Federation (FEFAC) has published its fourth update on the feed supply chain disruption risk and economic impact of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on soy supplies for animal feed, warning that multiple simultaneous pressures are tightening EU feed supplies heading into 2027.

FEFAC estimates a potential EU soybean meal (SBM) supply gap of at least around 5 million tonnes for the 2026/2027 marketing year, representing roughly 20% of the EU's total SBM footprint, with very limited substitution options available. The federation identified severe drought, Black Sea trade disruption, and EUDR sourcing constraints as converging factors squeezing the EU feed chain simultaneously.

Cost impact on EU feed sector

FEFAC estimates the direct extra cost of EUDR-compliant soy for feed use at up to €1.05 billion (USD 1.20 billion), based on total usage of around 35 million tonnes. The federation also noted that rapeseed and sunflower meal prices are linked to soybean meal quotations at roughly 65%, which it said could add a further €449 million (USD 515 million) in costs for these alternative high-protein ingredients. FEFAC calculates the total estimated impact at around €1.40 billion (USD 1.60 billion) for SBM, rapeseed meal and sunflower meal supplies to the EU feed and livestock sector.

At the livestock production level, FEFAC estimates the cost impact could translate into roughly €40 (USD 45.84) per tonne of pig meat and €15 (USD 17.19) per tonne of poultry meat, which the federation said would further undermine the competitiveness of the EU livestock sector.

Origin-by-origin risk assessment

FEFAC's updated origin-by-origin risk assessment classifies North America, Argentina and Paraguay as low risk, with 90–100% expected SBM availability. EU origins, Ukraine and Serbia are classified as low-to-medium risk, mainly due to logistics concerns, while Brazil is considered medium risk. FEFAC noted continued regional variation between Southern Brazil and the Cerrado/Northern export corridor, though it described Brazil's classification as an improvement over previous assessments.

West Africa, India and China are classified as high risk, particularly for non-GM and organic soy niche markets.

A key open question identified by FEFAC is whether Brazil can shift part of its EU-bound SBM supply from the Northern to the Southern corridor to close the potential supply gap. The federation noted persistent bottlenecks related to storage capacity that may constrain this flexibility.

Calls for exceptional measures

FEFAC President Nicolas Coudry-Mesny stated: "There is profound concern already about the EU's feed material sourcing capacity due to the combined effects of persisting drought and closure of key maritime corridors, such as the Black Sea, leading to a market crunch by the end of the calendar year. The imminent application of the EUDR, which is currently disrupting EU purchases of soy from global markets after 30 December 2026, exacerbates the pressure, potentially leading to major disruption of essential feed supply chains."

FEFAC urged EU institutions to take exceptional measures to ensure feed security and prevent what it described as an economically unviable situation for the EU livestock sector in early 2027. Specific requests include the immediate simplified implementation of the EUDR for in-scope soy products, as well as the suspension of EUDR application to palm kernel expeller.

The federation also urged EU institutions and national authorities to use existing and future EU trade agreements — including MERCOSUR, CETA, the DCFTA with Ukraine and the EU-US agreement — to confirm long-standing zero-tariff schedules for soybean meal imports and facilitate bilateral agreements on the recognition of EUDR legality certification programmes.