
Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said Russia's obstruction of civilian shipping in the Black Sea has also hurt Russia's own grain exports, which Moscow is trying to reroute via the Baltic Sea at high cost. He described the Baltic rerouting as illogical, expensive and time-consuming.
The Security Service of Ukraine and Defense Forces reportedly struck the Russian patrol boat Naro-Fominsk in the Baltic Sea on November 11.
Rerouting Russian grain through the Baltic raises freight costs and delays shipments, which can tighten wheat export availability and support prices. Continued disruption of Black Sea shipping keeps the risk premium on wheat and corn elevated.
After 363 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.