
The Ukrainian Navy said Russian representatives at the Joint Coordination Centre refused to agree routes for four ships, three of which were unable to leave Ukrainian ports. One vessel chartered by the World Food Programme to deliver wheat to Ethiopia was among those stalled.
Russia has signaled it may not extend the deal unless Western obstacles to its own exports are removed.
Stalled vessels and threats to end the deal raise uncertainty over Black Sea grain supply, supporting wheat and corn prices and shipping costs. A failed extension would remove a major export corridor.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.