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RaboResearch forecasts that milk output across the Big 7 dairy-exporting regions (US, EU, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay) will fall 0.2% year-on-year in Q4 2026, after growth slows to about 0.5% in the second half. The forecast expects EU deliveries to decline from Q4 2026 through Q1 2027, and October 2026 EU farmgate prices averaged €45.12 per 100 kg, down 13.9% year-on-year.
A shift from abundant to tightening milk supply reduces global dairy export availability, which should support international dairy prices after more than a year of pressure. Weaker EU farmgate prices are curbing producer investment and herd expansion, which limits how far the supply contraction can go.
dairynews7x7.comDairy News 7x7 Editorial TeamNov 14, 2026After 240 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
