
USDA's January 10 WASDE cut its 2025 milk production forecast by 800 million pounds to 227.2 billion pounds, and cut 2024 output by 500 million pounds to 225.8 billion. USDA also raised its 2025 price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey, and lifted the Class III price to $19.70/cwt.
Slower output growth from fewer cows and lower milk per cow tightens the dairy supply outlook, supporting higher milk and dairy product prices. Feed buyers should expect firmer milk-based feed ingredient values through 2025.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.