
USDA's April WASDE raised its 2026 milk production forecast by 600 million pounds to 235.3 billion pounds on higher cow inventories. Cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were raised, butter was lowered, and the Class III forecast rose to $16.90 per cwt.
A higher milk forecast is bearish for supply tightness but raised Class III and Class IV price expectations support dairy values. Feed buyers face a balanced-to-firm dairy outlook.
After 237 past bullish report events, MILK moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.