
USDA's February supply-demand estimates raised its 2026 US milk production forecast by 200 million pounds to 234.5 billion pounds, and lifted its cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey price forecasts. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts were also raised, with the all-milk price forecast up 70 cents to $18.95 per hundredweight.
Higher USDA price forecasts for dairy products and milk point to firmer farm-gate milk prices in 2026, though the larger production forecast partly offsets that support.
After 237 past bullish report events, MILK moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.