
Soybean futures fell from above $13.30 a bushel in mid-September to about $12.32 on November 13 despite a US-China tariff-cut framework and a new trade council. Officials are still due to meet at the APEC summit, while state-led US soybean purchases in China lag and Brazil's record harvest weighs on prices.
Enforceable purchase commitments are lacking and Brazil's large supply dominates, so soybean and meal prices are likely to stay under pressure unless China's buying picks up.
After 804 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.