
U.S. milk production reached 19.44 billion pounds in September, up 2.4% from a year earlier and part of a year-long run of monthly gains. Expanding dairy herds have pushed supply to a multi-decade high, while strong domestic protein demand and a 13.8% rise in exports are helping absorb the additional milk.
Record output is bearish for milk prices, but stronger domestic consumption and export demand are cushioning the supply increase and limiting downside pressure.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.