
USDA's May supply and demand report raised 2020 milk production on higher cow numbers and expects fewer cows but more milk in 2021. Export and import forecasts were raised for skim solids and fat, and the 2020 all-milk price was set at $14.55 per cwt.
Class III was raised and Class IV lowered for 2020.
Higher milk output with firm export demand is a mixed signal for dairy prices, with Class III strength offset by lower Class IV. The 2021 forecast of higher prices supports the medium-term outlook for dairy-linked feed.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.