
USDA raised its 2022 and 2023 milk production estimates as dairy herds expand and output per cow rises. In its October supply and demand report, USDA raised the 2022 all-milk price forecast by 15 cents to $25.60/cwt and the 2023 forecast by 20 cents to $22.90/cwt.
Higher projected milk output adds supply to dairy markets, but the raised price forecasts reflect firm butter and cheese values that support feed demand from dairy herds.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.