
USDA raised its 2024 milk production forecast because of faster growth in cow numbers and output per cow. It also raised its butter and cheese price forecasts and lowered nonfat dry milk and whey prices, and it raised the 2024 all-milk price by 35 cents to $21.90/cwt.
A bigger milk supply is bearish for dairy prices over time, but higher USDA cheese and butter price forecasts support near-term milk values. Dairy margins and feed demand for dairy rations shift accordingly.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.