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Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a fourth weekly decline after a hotter-than-expected US October CPO report lifted Treasury yields and the dollar. Gold slumped to a 13-month low, while natural gas rose on colder weather and corn and soybeans rebounded on tighter US supply estimates.
A stronger dollar and higher yields weigh on commodity prices broadly, while tighter US corn and soybean supply estimates support grain prices. Persistent fuel and LNG tightness could keep energy costs elevated for feed production and transport.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
