
Metals and crude oil sold off broadly after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, which lifted the US dollar. Gold and silver had hit record highs in January before the downturn.
Crude fell alongside the wider commodities selloff.
A firmer dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for foreign buyers and tends to reduce their prices. The selloff also lowers crude and energy costs that feed into grain and oilseed markets.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Warsh Fed nomination lifted the dollar and triggered a broad commodities selloff that pulled crude down, a macro and currency channel.