
Brent January futures settled at $95.82, up 3.3%, and WTI December settled at $88.74, up 2.55%. Both benchmarks remain down about 3% on the week after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a stalled diplomatic channel with the US.
Higher crude and energy costs raise diesel, freight and fertilizer expenses for feed producers, while Hormuz disruptions keep supply risk elevated. The rise is driven by geopolitical headlines rather than demand, so the move may reverse if shipping calms.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.