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Trump told CNBC he expected Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to announce a cut of 10 million to 15 million barrels a day, with no timeframe given. WTI settled up 24.67% at $25.32 and Brent jumped 21% to $29.94, both record gains.
Trump later said the cut could be substantially more.
A announced cut of this scale would sharply reduce crude supply and lift energy costs. Because no timeline or distribution was specified, the price impact depends on confirmation from the producers.
cnbc.comPippa StevensApr 2, 2020After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's claim of a 10-15 million bpd Saudi-Russia cut drove WTI's record 24.67% one-day gain on April 2, the core driver of the 5-day rally (sentiment/supply expectation).
Trump's April 2 statement that he expected Putin and MBS to announce a 10-15 million bpd cut was the direct catalyst for the record one-day WTI rally (supply-cut sentiment shock).
Trump's statement that Putin and MBS would announce a 10-15M bpd cut triggered the record gains in Brent and WTI on April 2.
Trump's claim of a 10-15 million bpd Saudi/Russian cut triggered the record surge in Brent and WTI, a supply-side sentiment shock.
Trump's statement of an expected 10-15 mb/d cut was the catalyst for the record Brent gain on April 2.
