
OPEC and allies agreed a historic 10 million barrel per day cut, though the deal stalled when Mexico refused its share. OPEC said the cut would run at 10 million bpd in May and June, tapering to 8 million for the rest of 2020.
The headline cut tightens supply against a pandemic demand collapse, but the Mexico dispute left the deal uncertain, so price support remains conditional.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.