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Brent passed $100 a barrel and WTI topped $90 as Iranian militants reportedly killed US servicemen in Jordan and Houthis imposed a Red Sea blockade. Analysts discussed scenarios in which Iranian oil exports stop entirely.
Possible loss of Iranian barrels and Red Sea disruption would tighten crude supply, raising energy costs for feed producers.
cnbc.comBrian SullivanJul 23, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reported US deaths in Jordan, a Houthi Red Sea blockade and scenarios of halted Iranian exports increased the perceived supply-loss risk.
Reported killings of US servicemen and a Houthi Red Sea blockade raised the odds of Iranian export loss, adding to the risk premium.
