Brent rose above $95 a barrel after Trump said the US did not need a deal with Iran and after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The Houthis claimed strikes on a Saudi East-West pipeline pumping station, a Yanbu facility and an Aramco building in Riyadh.
Goldman Sachs reportedly raised its oil price forecasts.
Attacks on Saudi energy assets and Hormuz disruption tighten crude supply, raising diesel and energy costs that feed into feed milling and transport.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.