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China’s Ministry of Agriculture raised its 2025/26 soybean import estimate to 111.62 million tons, while leaving its 2026/27 forecast at 95.5 million tons. It also forecast lower soybean consumption next season and reduced its 2025/26 edible-oil import estimate by 700,000 tons, citing high palm oil prices, weak import margins and Black Sea sunflower oil shipment disruptions.
Lower forecast soybean imports and consumption point to weaker Chinese demand for export supplies next season, which could weigh on soybean prices. Reduced edible-oil imports also imply softer demand for vegetable oils, including soybean oil.
ukragroconsult.comNov 11, 2026After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
