Fitch Ratings expects crude palm oil prices to fall from above $1,100 per tonne to $800 per tonne in 2025. The forecast cites a slower rebound in yields, higher biodiesel consumption in Indonesia, and greater supply and competition from soybean output.
A lower forecast reflects expectations of higher palm supply and stronger competition from soyoil, which pressures palm and soy oil prices. Indonesian biodiesel demand is the main offset that could limit the decline.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.