
Fitch Ratings expects Malaysia's benchmark crude palm oil prices to weaken from the second quarter of 2024 because of higher global vegetable oil supply. Its benchmark assumption is $700 per tonne for 2024 and 2025.
Fitch flagged El Niño or La Niña and Indonesian biodiesel blending as upside risks.
Expected Q2 supply growth and mild weather point to softer palm prices, though a stronger biodiesel mandate could reverse that. Feed costs tied to vegetable oils may ease later in the year.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.