Oil World CEO Thomas Mielke expects palm oil prices to fall toward $40-50 a ton from about $630 over the coming months, as April-September brings a global output surplus and stock building in Malaysia and Indonesia. He projects global output of 70.5 million tons in 2018 and sees possible price recovery in 2019-20 if a deficit emerges.
A forecast surplus and growing stocks point to lower palm oil prices in the near term, with tighter supply possibly returning later.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.