
Malaysia's palm oil output is expected to improve in 2024 as labour shortages ease, with MPOB forecasting production of 18.75 million tonnes and exports of 15.6 million tonnes. Planters still face compliance pressure from EU and US rules on deforestation and forced labour.
Higher expected Malaysian output and exports point to more supply in the palm oil market, which is mildly bearish for prices, though labour and regulatory constraints limit the upside to supply.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Feb 1, MPOB forecasts of improved 2024 output (18.75 Mt) and easing labour shortages point to higher supply, a bearish sentiment driver for palm prices.