AmInvestment Bank expects crude palm oil to average $558.46 per tonne in the second half of 2017, down from $674.80 in the first half, as production seasonally ramps up toward a peak in September or October. Only a severe El Niño hitting output is seen as a bullish risk, while weaker demand in China and India could add pressure.
Seasonal output growth and weaker Asian import demand point to lower palm oil prices in H2, which lowers the cost of this vegetable oil as a feed ingredient.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.