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Analyst Dorab Mistry forecast Malaysia's 2019 palm oil output would rise to 20 million tonnes, up from 19.5 million tonnes previously. Malaysian output for January to March set monthly records, but he expects aging trees to limit production later in 2019.
Mistry also kept his Indonesian forecast at 44 million tonnes.
Higher Malaysian and Indonesian output forecasts point to ample palm supply that could cap prices. Limits from aging trees may offer some support later in the year.
thehindubusinessline.comReutersApr 29, 2019After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same Mistry output forecast raise reported by another outlet; higher supply expectations pressured futures.
Mistry's upgrade of 2019 Malaysian output to 20 million tonnes signals higher supply and stocks, which could have sustained bearish pressure into May 1, though it was published several days earlier.
Same output upgrade report from Mistry that fed bearish supply expectations early in the window.
The raised Malaysian 2019 output forecast to 20 million tonnes and record Q1 output reinforced the bearish supply narrative behind the selloff.
