The EIA said U.S. biomass-based diesel and ethanol RIN credit prices have fallen to three-year lows on lower feedstock costs, and expects them to stay weak as renewable diesel output rises. Declining soybean oil prices are the main driver, with Brazilian export pressure and rising global soy stocks also cited.
Weak RINs reduce the incentive to produce biofuels, which cuts a key source of soybean oil demand and keeps pressure on soyoil and soybean crush-related prices. Lower soyoil values also weigh on the meal-and-oil crush margin.
After 146 past bearish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.