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US biomass-based diesel and ethanol RIN credit prices have fallen to three-year lows, with D4 and D6 RINs at their lowest since 2020. The EIA attributes the slump to declining soybean oil prices, rising renewable diesel output, and low blending targets through 2025.
Lower RIN values reduce incentives for biofuel production, weakening demand for soybean oil and other biofuel feedstocks.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.