
An agriculture ministry-backed outlook projects China's 2026 imports of soybeans, pork, beef and dairy will fall 6.1%, 8.2%, 3.9% and 4.1% year on year. Soybean imports are forecast to drop to 82.55 million tonnes by 2035, down 26.2% from 2025's record.
Grain output is expected to keep rising.
Lower Chinese soybean imports reduce a key export demand source for US and Brazilian soybeans, which is bearish for soybean prices. Lower pork import demand also adds to global pork market weakness.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.