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China's first 2025/26 CASDE outlook forecasts soybean imports falling 2.8% to 95.8 million tons as efforts to cut soymeal use in livestock feed reduce demand. Domestic soybean output is projected to rise 2.1% to 21.09 million tons.
Lower Chinese import demand for soybeans and soymeal is bearish for global soybean and meal prices, with Brazil and US exporters most exposed. The policy shift to less soymeal in feed weighs on the largest importer's future crush demand.
tradingview.comMay 12, 2025After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
