
The EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $97.44 per barrel and its 2027 forecast to $85.78, citing declining global inventories and continued Middle East production and shipping disruptions. It expects prices to ease in 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild, while noting that Saudi pipeline restarts and ship-to-ship transfers helped sustain October exports.
Tighter inventories and disrupted oil flows support crude and transport-energy costs, potentially raising feed production and freight expenses. The expected recovery in supply and inventory rebuilding point to lower oil prices in 2027.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.