US Dollar Forecast: Has USD Run Out Of Surprises This Month?

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2024US Dollar Forecast: Fed’s easing weighs on the Dollar+0.9%
• Nov 26, 2020Euro rises to near 3-month high as US dollar falls - The Business Times-1.2%
• Feb 1, 2019Rupee hits 5-month high vs US dollar, then erases gains+0.8%
• Feb 24, 2025South Korean Won Rises on Weak US Dollar+0.9%
• Aug 28, 2020USD: Fed has set up the dollar for further weakness - MUFG - Forex Crunch-0.5%

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2016USD JPY breaks out to new highs as dollar surges and safe havens suffer+12.5%
• Nov 30, 2016Dollar surges to 8-1/2-month high against yen on OPEC deal+12.5%
• Oct 15, 2021Oil prices rise to three-year high on back of supply deficit forecasts+1.5%
• Mar 31, 2026South African rand set for more than 6% monthly drop against dollar | Reuters+9.6%
• Oct 31, 2019Rupee rises 9 paise against US dollar after Fed rate cut - The Hindu+2.4%