Loading…
CRU's 2021 outlook projects China's soybean imports at 105 Mt and corn imports at 20 Mt, up from roughly 100 Mt and 10 to 12 Mt in 2020, as hog recovery lifts feed demand. It forecasts US plantings of 92 million acres of corn, 89 million of soybeans and 45 million of wheat.
It also expects Chinese anthracite prices to rise, cutting urea exports to as low as 3.5 Mt, and says China's DAP supply will stay tight.
Stronger Chinese feed imports and tighter Chinese urea and DAP exports support higher corn, soybean and phosphate prices. Forecast US acreage changes will shape the balance between supply and demand for feed grains.
crugroup.comAuthor Chris Lawson Fertilizers Nitrogen PhosphatesJan 19, 2021After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
