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CRU Fertilizers published its top ten market calls for 2020, forecasting Chinese urea exports falling to 4.1 Mt from 4.8 Mt and DAP exports dipping to 6.3 Mt. It also expects a Chinese potash contract to be settled at the end of Q1 at $265/t, down $25, and Chinese soybean imports to rise to 87 Mt.
Lower Chinese urea and DAP exports tighten those global supplies, while a lower potash contract price signals softer potash costs. Stronger Chinese soybean imports would support soybean meal demand.
news.agropages.comJan 17, 2020After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
