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CRU reviewed its top 10 fertilizer forecasts for 2020 and found most still on track despite COVID-19 disruption. China's DAP and urea exports are expected to fall, and India's urea imports are projected to decline while DAP imports rebound.
The review was published as a mid-year update.
Lower Chinese phosphate and urea export availability tightens the balance for importers, while India's shifting import needs change where global demand comes from.
crugroup.comAuthor Chris LawsonJun 15, 2020After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
