
Morocco's OCP exported a record 12.37 million tons of fertilizer in 2024, with TSP rising sharply as a share of its sales. OCP forecasts 2025 exports of 13.4-13.5 million tons, and combined DAP/TSP exports could rise by as much as 1.9 million tons.
Larger expected DAP/TSP availability from OCP partly offsets strong demand from India and Ethiopia, so phosphate prices may find less upside than tight-supply stories suggest.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.