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A JIRCAS overview summarizes a FAO/WTO report on global fertilizer markets and policies. It shows nitrogen, DAP and potash prices rising sharply since 2020 and suggests lower fertilizer application in 2022/23.
Lower expected fertilizer application points to weaker future yields, which is supportive for feed-grain prices. The price history confirms elevated input costs.
jircas.go.jpJapan International Research CenterNov 29, 2022After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
