
Soybean and corn futures in Chicago were little changed as traders awaited updated USDA planting and harvest figures, with a record U.S. harvest expected. In Brazil, emerging weather problems in the South raised an early concern for the 2026/27 crop; Brent fell to about $94.75 amid easing Iran-related tensions and developments following the U.S. election.
Adverse weather in southern Brazil could threaten crop prospects and lend support to soybean and corn prices if it persists, though the report describes an early warning rather than confirmed losses. A weaker real can also support Brazilian-origin grain offers in dollar terms.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 10 past bearish weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.9% to +4.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 338 past bullish events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.