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UK wheat, Paris milling wheat and Chicago wheat futures fell on October 28 amid a broad financial sell-off tied to rising Covid-19 infections and weaker energy markets. Brent was down 6.3% over the week, and the article flags a 55% chance of La Niña persisting from December to February.
La Niña typically brings drier conditions to South America and wetter weather to Australia, which can affect global oilseed and grain supply and support prices. Energy weakness and macro anxiety are currently the dominant pressure on grain prices.
ahdb.org.ukOct 29, 2020After 334 past bearish weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 10 past bearish weather events, BRENT moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.9% to +4.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 18 past neutral weather events, SBO moved a median +2.6% over 5 sessions (72% higher; middle half -0.4% to +3.5%), and +3.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
