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ULSD futures rose on Monday as harsh winter weather lifted diesel and heating oil demand, while crude and gasoline eased after Kazakh export terminals resumed full operations. Freezing weather shut in about 250,000 bpd of US crude output.
The dollar index fell to a four-month low, limiting declines in dollar-denominated commodities.
Winter-driven diesel strength runs against softer crude, so the net effect on freight costs depends on the balance between the two. A weaker dollar supports US-priced commodity exports.
dtnpf.comKarim Bastati DTN AnalystJan 26, 2026After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
After 17 past bearish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.9%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 10 past bearish weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.9% to +4.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
