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Energy markets fell at the start of February as reports of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations emerged, with diesel down nearly 6% after the expiring February contract hit a two-year high. Winter storms and arctic air strained the power grid and fuel network, freezing rivers slowed vessel flows to a Pennsylvania refinery, and terminals faced allocation restrictions.
Diesel demand from power plants during the cold snap is tightening distillate supplies in the Northeast, which supports diesel-linked prices even as geopolitical risk premium drains out. Feed buyers face volatile fuel and freight costs.
tacenergy.comFeb 2, 2026After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
After 17 past bearish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.9%), and +2.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
