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Marine gasoil on the US East Coast surged with the regional cold snap, with NYMEX ULSD futures up about 23 cents a gallon over four trading days. Natural gas supply to industrial users was curtailed, and power plants burning heating oil pushed up distillate premiums.
OPIS expects diesel to stay elevated while the cold continues.
Heating oil substitution for natural gas adds demand to distillates and keeps bunker and diesel costs high for East Coast freight. Cold-driven demand would sustain these price levels while the weather persists.
opis.comJan 27, 2026After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
