
The ULSD futures price settled at its second-highest level in almost two years, up 27.94 cents a gallon in three trading days. The DOE/EIA retail diesel average rose for a second week to $3.624 a gallon, and the fuel surcharge benchmark is expected to rise again the following week.
Cold weather and refinery issues are driving the gains.
The surcharge benchmark rising means higher trucking costs for delivered feed ingredients, which will be passed to buyers. Tight distillate inventories point to continued upward pressure on diesel.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.