
An Arctic air mass pushed up heating oil demand in the US Northeast this year. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2014.
The four-week average of distillate demand reached 3.9 million barrels per day.
Low distillate stocks and strong heating demand tighten diesel supply and support prices into spring. Cold-driven demand can offset weak industrial consumption.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.