Oil settles up 1% as cold weather in US, Europe drives winter fuel demand

After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.

• Jan 23, 2026US energy sector braces for winter storm as crude and natural gas output fall | Reuters+9.6%
• Dec 30, 2024Oil rises on diesel demand boost in sparse holiday trade | Reuters+4.2%
• Feb 15, 2021Oil hits pandemic high as winter storm pushes demand and poses production risk+3.6%
• Jan 16, 2026Oil prices rise as supply risk remain in focus+2.8%
• Aug 28, 2020-Oil prices dip as producers, refiners avoid worst of hurricane | Reuters-3.6%

After 24 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.8% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -1.9% to +5.2%), and +6.3% over 20.

• Dec 30, 2024Oil rises on diesel demand boost in sparse holiday trade | Reuters+3.8%
• Feb 15, 2021Oil hits pandemic high as winter storm pushes demand and poses production risk+0.7%
• Jan 16, 2026Oil prices rise as supply risk remain in focus-0.3%
• Aug 31, 2017Traders scramble to avert fuel shortages in US and Mexico+5.8%
• Aug 28, 2020-Oil prices dip as producers, refiners avoid worst of hurricane | Reuters-3.5%

After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.

• Jan 23, 2026US energy sector braces for winter storm as crude and natural gas output fall | Reuters+8.1%
• Dec 30, 2024Oil rises on diesel demand boost in sparse holiday trade | Reuters+5.6%
• Jan 28, 2026Diesel surging on cold weather, more increases in DOE/EIA benchmark loom - FreightWaves-4.8%
• Feb 20, 2025Cold weather boosts US diesel, masking economic challenges-5.1%
• Aug 31, 2017Traders scramble to avert fuel shortages in US and Mexico+7.1%