Diesel benchmark up slightly; futures market soars on forecast of extreme cold

After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.

• Jan 28, 2026Diesel surging on cold weather, more increases in DOE/EIA benchmark loom - FreightWaves-4.8%
• Dec 27, 2022Benchmark diesel price down again but futures price turns higher - FreightWaves-4.3%
• Aug 24, 2020Diesel price hike relatively muted as oil markets await arrival of Laura - FreightWaves+0.4%
• Jan 27, 2026Marine Gasoil on East Coast Surges as Frigid Weather Pressures Diesel Market Higher - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company-4.8%
• Feb 15, 2021Higher diesel prices likely as freeze shuts down Gulf Coast refineries - FreightWaves+4.9%

After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Dec 8, 2022US natgas futures surge on forecasts for colder weather - Markets - Business Recorder+27.9%
• Jan 8, 2024UPDATE 1-US natgas prices up 3% to 7-week high on extreme cold forecasts+134.5%
• Jan 11, 2025US natural gas prices soar to two-year high on colder forecasts - Markets - Business Recorder+53.7%
• Oct 25, 2023US natural gas prices up on cooler forecast - Markets - Business Recorder+18.8%
• Jan 27, 2026Marine Gasoil on East Coast Surges as Frigid Weather Pressures Diesel Market Higher - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company-71.1%