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ULSD diesel on CME rose 3.96 cents to $1.2476 per gallon on Monday ahead of Tropical Storm Laura, while RBOB gasoline jumped 6.46%. Markets expected possible refinery shutdowns along the Texas-Louisiana coast.
Anticipated refinery shutdowns can lift diesel prices, which raises fuel and freight costs for feed delivery, though the diesel move was modest.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.